Baby Making and Alcohol Consumption: A Polish Fairytale

Where Polish Alcohol Consumption Leads Me to the American Baby Boom

It would be a bad idea to confuse me with someone who cared about, let alone, understood, the fertility rates and alcohol consumption rates in Poland. However, when I saw the news report that Poland’s ruling party leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, declared that the country’s continuously declining (and relatively low) birth rate was due to women drinking like men, I took an interest.

Kaczynski, at a rally in advance of parliamentary elections there, declared the following:

“And here it is sometimes necessary to say a little openly, some bitter things. If, for example, the situation remains such that, until the age of 25, girls, young women, drink the same amount as their peers, there will be no children."

When he says “peers” he means men.

This sounds dumb on its face. And the truth is that higher female alcohol consumption does not cause a low fertility rate. That said, consider the following:

• Polish Fertility Rate (2022): 1.4 births per woman

• Polish Female Alcohol Consumption: 5.65 liters/year

Here’s the interesting thing. The Polish fertility rate is among the lowest in the world, ranking #214 of 227 countries ranked. Meanwhile, the alcohol consumption rate for polish females is among the highest in the world, ranking number of #19 of 185 countries ranked.

[FERTILITY RATES PER COUNTRY]

This is a perfect example of the principle that correlation does not equal causation.

In general, men drink 3 to 4 times more than women in most countries. This difference has decreased over time, but there remains a significant difference in alcohol consumption between the genders. In the United States, for example, men consume 15.44 liters/year while women consume 4.69 liters per year.

If you are wondering which country has the highest rate of alcohol consumption, Latvia has that honor where individuals drink, on average, 13.9 liters/year. Males in Latvia have the highest rate of alcohol consumption of any country at 21.6 liters/year.

The highest rate of alcohol consumption for females goes to Ireland, where the fine lasses of that land consume 6.34 liters/year.

[ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION PER COUNTRY]

It should be no surprise that countries with majority Muslim populations drink the least amount of alcohol annually. The 10 countries with the lowest rate of alcohol consumption include Afghanistan, Lybia, Yemen, Egypt, Syria, Bhutan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Djibouti, and Iraq.

Speaking of drinking in Muslim countries, fans attending the World Cup in Qatar this month will be in a country that has very strict drinking laws and where alcohol consumption is among the lowest in the world, coming in at 1.51 liters/year. This may be a challenge for fans following their teams to Qatar from England, Poland, France, Germany, Australia, Denmark, Belgium, and Portugal. In these countries, alcohol consumption is roughly 9-10 times more than in Qatar.

But to return to Poland and their leader’s concern that fertility rates in that country are tied to women drinking, it seems highly unlikely that the country’s fertility rate problem of 1.4 births per woman will be fixed if women there just back off the booze a bit. The fact is, fertility rates have been falling worldwide for over a century. There is probably one thing that Poland could do to boost its fertility rate significantly: ditch industrialization whereby fewer children is the better economic choice and return to being a country in which subsistence agriculture is the norm and more children is the better economic choice. This seems unlikely.

If you are wondering, America’s fertility rate is 1.84 (births/woman), about 30% higher than Poland’s. The American fertility rate has been on the decline for over two centuries. in 1800 the U.S. fertility rate stood at 7.03 (that’s children per woman). The decline in the U.S. fertility rate was steady just up until 1945 and the beginning of the Baby Boom in the United States.

The U.S. Baby Boom is extraordinary. Between 1940 and 1960 the fertility rate in the U.S. increased by 73% as economic prospects for the United States is bolstered considerably by its victory in WWII and the economic devastation of other industrialized countries, leaving the U.S. the only major economic player on the planet. 1945 also marks the end of a terrible economic period in the U.S. beginning with the depression that began in 1929. As soldiers came home from the war in 1945 there was a desire to settle down and start families. And boy did we.

The boom in the American fertility rate begins to wane around 1965. By 1980 the U.S. fertility rate is at 1.77. This is followed by a slight uptick (hello Millennials!) but by 2022 the U.S. fertility rate has declined to its 1980 rate.

What’s interesting is that the pace of alcohol consumption in the United States is most consistent during the Baby Boom period. As you would expect, depictions of alcohol consumption rates in the U.S. vary wildly in the 20th century due to the introduction of prohibition in 1919. However, between 1945 and 1960, American alcohol consumption stays remarkably steady at about 2 gallons per capita. Then, it starts to increase steadily until about 1985 when it hits roughly 2.75 gallons per capita.

Then a decline begins. Between 1985 and roughly 2000 American alcohol consumption steadily declines until it hits 2.15 gallons per capita. Since then there has been a very small increase up until today.

Again returning to Poland, there is no question that Poland both has a disturbingly low fertility rate and a disturbingly high rate of alcohol consumption. However, one is not causing the other. Yet, both may be impacted by a third factor. I, however, am not competent enough to ferret out that factor or factors.

What I do know, however, is that Polish leader Kaczynski is less competent than I am when it comes to making claims about drinking and society. However, Kaczynski sets a low bar as depicted in this claim he made in the same speech in which he declares women need to stop drinking in order for the fertility rate to rise:

“He [Kaczynski] claimed, without any medical proof, that to develop alcoholism, the average man ‘has to drink excessively for 20 years’ but ‘a woman only two."

No. I don’t think so.