Five Reasons 2025 Could be the Most Tumultuous Year for Wine in Decades
A wave is coming, but we don't know how big it will be. Best to hold on tight.
These are indeed very interesting times. The change comes fast and furious. It is easier than ever, even amidst the avelanche of facts and information at our fingertips, to be confused with what we see. It’s an era when mere complexity strikes us as a warren of relief from the tumult.
For the wine industry, the coming year, 2025, is poised to be among the most uprooting years we’ve witnessed in decades as a collection of potential changes and developments have the potential to rewire the industry. The industry of wine could use some rewiring here and there. But when such a period as this arrives, there is always a chance the wires get crossed and sparks fly.
Below are the five reasons sparks could truly fly in the wine industry in 2025. Depending which way each issue described below breaks, we could see very good times or even desperate times for the future of winemaking and selling. What can be frustrating about the five issues identified below is that there is very little the average wine industry participant can do to impact which way they break. We are all very much the lone person on the beach waiting to see how the wave breaks upon us.
1. The Threat of Tariffs
Tariffs placed on European wines will harm the entire wine industry. It will be a net loss if they occur. Importers, wholesalers, retailers, restaurants, and even domestic producers are all harmed by tariffs. Moreover, the longer they continue the more harm they cause. The result will be the demise of a number of companies in all of these sectors of the industry. We won’t know how or when or even if tariffs are laid upon foreign wines until 2025. But we are likely to find out early after the Trump administration takes the reigns. If substantial and widespread tariffs are instituted, the damage will be determined by how long they last.
2. Dietary Guidelines and Alcohol Consumption Recommendations
The American wine industry is either going to dodge a very big bullet or get hit directly in the chest depending on what kind of recommendation for alcohol consumption comes out of the Dietary Guidelines and alcohol consumption recommendations that come with them. The impact, for example, of a recommendation built on the idea that there is “no safe level” of alcohol consumption will reverberate for a decade or more. It will influence consumption habits among the young as well as anti-alcohol legislation.