It's the Season When Gamblers Say Their Prayers

Across the Northern Hemisphere, grape growers keep their eyes on the sky

In the world of Northern Hemisphere winemaking, there is no more exciting time than this very moment. From California to New York to Bordeaux to Germany, the wine grape harvest is underway. And it looks pretty good across the board. But one thing my recent study of vintage quality from across the globe and through time has taught me is that there is still a chance it could all go south.

If you read the details of enough growing seasons in various winemaking regions going back 50 years (and particularly in European regions) you become all to accustomed to reading descriptions of this sort: “…but, the hope for a fine vintage came to a screeching halt when…” This is then followed, usually, by a description of some sort of torrential downpour that kept coming over a series of days. Then you get a discussion of how those who picked early made some lovely wines, “but for the most part the rains doused hopes for something spectacular.”

Unfortunately for the Old wine World, this kind of unfortunate turn of events is almost exclusively applicable to the European theater. Sometimes Oregon will see its hopes dashed by fall rains as the cooler weather tends to stretch out their harvests well into October. But you don’t hear about this much in California. The 1989 and 1998 vintages were considered by some to be mediocre vintages in California. But when you compare the wines produced in these years to those European vintages that saw their hopes dashed by late-season rains, California almost always comes out of it with a far superior product.

The word across Europe in 2022 is that, despite long periods of scorching sun, we are so far looking at a good harvest that will produce rich, opulent wines. But until the grapes are all in, things could still go south.

Meanwhile, up here in Oregon, the vintage is looking very good. A very wet spring and some late frosts/freezes will reduce the crop in some parts, but once the flowering got going and the growing season started to steam along all looked great. So far there have been no late summer rains and humidity, but, again, that could end anytime. However, the long-term forecast (the next two weeks) doesn’t show much in the way of rain.

As I write, Napa and the North Coast have been getting a bit of rain, but after some pretty intense heat last week, it is a welcome respite for the region. Moreover, it appears that, like Oregon, California is unlikely to see much rain. Equally important, the forecast doesn’t show any searing heat for the next couple of weeks.

One thing that was immediately clear to me after having worked in the wine industry for just a short time is that grape growers are both gamblers and priests. They only get one crop per year on which their livelihood depends. Every day they look up in the sky with a gambler’s eye hoping beyond hope they get dealt some more than 16. And like any good gambler or priest, they are well-versed in the art of prayer: “God, please divert the rain!”

With the exception of just a few regions, there is probably four more weeks before the harvest is finished up for 2022. During this time growers will be rolling dice on when to pick and they will be saying silent prayers to the gods. My hope is that they hit their number and get their prayers answered.