On Alcohol and Cancer—Be Happy, You're Gonna Be Just Fine
Wild claims about cancer and drinking leave out the important part.
It’s true. I’m not a doctor. Nor do I play one on TV. However, I can read statistics. And I do understand percentages. And because I can do both of those things, I’m here to tell you: regarding wine and cancer…you’re gonna be fine. Don’t worry about it.
The New York Times recently ran a story that mirrors what so many of the Joy Police have been telling us for some time and what has been driving the effort to demean alcohol consumption: “Deep Links Between Alcohol and Cancer”
More specifically the NY Times reports the following:
“moderate and light drinkers experienced more cancer deaths than occasional drinkers”
“Fifty-one percent of people — or more than half — do not know that alcohol increases your risk of cancer”
“potential benefits [of red wine consumption] don’t really outweigh your cancer risks”
“Excessive alcohol consumption increases the risk for six types of malignancies, including esophageal squamous cell carcinoma and certain types of head, neck, breast, colorectal, liver and stomach cancers”.
“regular drinking in early and mid-adulthood is associated with a higher risk of colon and rectal cancers in later life.”
Risk…Risk…Risk….But what kind of risk?
If you read the NY Times article, or any other article declaring alcohol increases your risk of cancer, you’ll probably notice it is never noted HOW MUCH the risk of cancer increases if you drink. There’s a reason they don’t mention this. The answer is HARDLY ANY AT ALL.
When discussing alcohol and cancer risk, seven different kinds of cancer are most commonly associated with alcohol consumption: Oral Cavity, Oropharynx, Larynx, Oseophagus, Breast, Liver, and Colorectal. Let’s take a look at these cancers and how alcohol consumption impacts them. We are taking the following figure from the Canadian Centre on Substance Use and Addiction’s “2023 Guidance on Alcohol and Health: Final Report.”
This report got a lot of international attention when it was released in Canada because it recommended that no more than 2 alcoholic drinks per week should be consumed. This was far less than the previous recommendation of 10 drinks a week for women and 15 drinks a week for men. The report pays particular attention to cancer risk. In fact, the report tells us exactly, according to a collection of studies, just how much the risk of different cancers will increase based on the number of drinks one consumes weekly. Let’s take a look at this change in RISK for the seven cancers by looking at how women drinking 2 glasses of wine per day impacts that RISK.
BREAST CANCER
-17 of 100,000 premature female deaths (1.73%) result from breast cancer.
Drinking 2 glasses of wine per day, a female’s absolute risk of developing breast cancer increases only to 2.2%
COLORECTAL CANCER
-9.2 of 100,000 premature female deaths (.92%) result from colorectal cancer.
Drinking 2 glasses of wine per day, a female’s absolute risk of developing breast cancer increases only to 1.1%
OESOPHAGUS CANCER
-1.5 of 100,000 premature female deaths (.15%) result from Oesophagus cancer. Drinking 2 glasses of wine per day, a female’s absolute risk of developing Oesophagus cancer increases only to .21%
LIVER CANCER
3.2 of 100,000 premature female deaths (.32%) result from Liver cancer. Drinking 2 glasses of wine per day, a female’s absolute risk of developing Liver cancer increases only to .36%
LARYNX CANCER
.2 of 100,000 premature female deaths (.02%) result from Larynx cancer. Drinking 2 glasses of wine per day, a female’s absolute risk of developing Larynx cancer increases only to .03%.
ORAL CAVITY AND PHARYNX CANCER
1.2 OF 100,000 premature female deaths (.12%) result from Oral Cavity and Pharynx cancer. Drinking 2 glasses per wine per day, the female’s absolute risk of developing Oral Cavity and Pharynx cancer increases only to .23%
I hope you noticed something here. WOMEN DRINKING 2 GLASSES OF WINE PER DAY (CONSIDERED EXTREMELY HIGH RISK), THOUGH INCREASING THE RELATIVE RISK OF DEVELOPING CANCER BY ANYWHERE FROM 11%-80%, STILL HAVE A LOW ABSOLUTE RISK. In other words, the absolute risk of developing these seven cancers as a result of drinking is quite low.
David Clement is the North American Affairs Manager at Consumer Choice Center and has written about the issue of relative vs absolute risk. He puts the cancer risk associated with drinking this way:
Those lobbying for enhanced warnings invariably quote the relative rather than absolute risk of drinking. For example: “Fourteen drinks a week for women increases the risk of breast cancer by 27 per cent.” Taken at face value that is a jarring figure, one that will likely spook some drinkers. To many people, it will sound as if drinking two drinks a day produces a 27 per cent chance of developing breast cancer.
But looking at that increase in absolute rather than relative terms, starting with the baseline risk for each illness, communicates a very different and much less shocking message. Using the CCSA’s own data, breast cancer is responsible for 17.3 premature deaths for every 100,000 Canadian women, which is a baseline of 1.7 one-hundredths of a per cent. A 27 per cent increase in that risk takes it to 22 premature deaths for every 100,000 women, or 2.2 one-hundredths of a per cent, which is still very small.
For men, the same relative risk versus absolute risk difference holds true. Take colorectal cancer, for example. It accounts for 13.9 premature deaths for every 100,000 men. According to the CCSA, men drinking 14 drinks per week increase their risk of colorectal cancer by 20 per cent. But again, when looking at absolute risk, 14 drinks per week shifts the baseline risk from 13.9 deaths per 100,000 to 16.7 — an increase of 2.8 deaths per 100,0000. In terms of percentages, the increase is 2.8 one-hundredths of a per cent.
The horde of anti-alcohol researchers doesn’t talk about the ABSOLUTE risk of drinking. They never do. If they did, the response from folks would be much different than what we read in the New York Times the other day. The response would rightly be something along the lines of, “What?…. That’s it? That’s all you’ve got?”
So, find something real to worry about. There are many things far more impactful to your life you can worry about than what will happen if you have a glass of Syrah with your evening meal.
In the meantime, remember, you’re gonna be just fine. Among the things that will kill you, that glass of Syrah isn’t one of them. And the next time you hear some catastrophic news about the impact of drinking, ask yourself, what are they NOT telling you?
Wonderfully and succinctly put. And, just imagine how many people are afraid to have a glass of wine, but gladly wolf down a double cheeseburger, while driving 60 miles an hour in a 30 mile an hour zone and talking on their cell phone because they're so stressed that they can't see straight. If we did some studies to find out how high the percentage of death is amongst these people, it won't be close. So ironically, it could be argued that relaxing with a glass of wine and support from friends could keep you from the above predicament I! 🙂🙂
A nice analysis. I'll add a bit more. The risk data all rely on total alcohol consumption, which includes beer, spirits and wine. Almost no studies look at wine alone, which is consumed quite differently (i.e. with meals) , and which has a number of antioxidants. If anything, the risks conferred by wine are lower than for other alcoholic beverages.