The Impact of Weight-Loss Drugs on Wine Consumption

The impact is coming, but it may not be what is predicted

Historians examine the complex and intertwined events of the past attempting to not just tell a story, but, in doing so, relate causes and effects. The best historians appear to effortlessly make the causes and effects appear obvious; so obvious that it would seem to the reader that the effects of an action should have been obvious at the time of the cause.

This is no easy work. Nearly 80 years later historians are still arguing earnestly over what caused the Cold War following World War II. The “fall” of Rome is still debated. What was the proximate cause of Donald Trump’s election? It’s debatable.

Given the difficulty of linking the cause of historical events in both the recent and distant past, it should go without saying that attempting to confidently predict the effect(s) of a particular event in the present may not be the most prudent kind of project.

So, what to make of this:

“Morgan Stanley’s AlphaWise research unit found that people taking these weight loss drugs consumed 62% less alcohol; more than one in five of them said they had stopped drinking booze altogether….Morgan Stanley expects an overall 1.8% reduction in alcohol consumption from weight loss drugs. Since the US alcohol industry is estimated at $197 billion, we’re talking about a $3.5 billion loss in sales”

Morgan Stanley was examining the impact of the increase in Americans taking drugs like Ozempic and Mounjaro for purely weight loss reasons. Originally created to treat Diabetes, these drugs have been found to also be extremely effective at causing weight loss by significantly reducing food cravings. There are a variety of side effects to taking these drugs, including nausea and constipation. But another frequently reported side-effect is reduced alcohol consumption, and often times quite significant reductions.

While the intake of these drugs has increased significantly, they are still extraordinarily expensive. They can cost upwards of $1,000 for a monthly dose in the United States. Moreover, they are rarely covered by insurance when not being taken for Diabetes.

Consider that at last report, roughly 40% of Americans are “obese”. And consider the health impacts of obesity. Now, consider a drug that could significantly reduce the number of obese Americans. The impact on our national health and the cost of healthcare would be significant. This seems to be good news for health insurance companies, not to mention their customers.

So, while I could be wrong, I would expect the cost of these drugs to come down, the disposition of insurance companies toward their coverage to change, and more efficient delivery vehicles than the current injection method to be developed.

If this all comes to pass, what about Morgan Stanley’s prediction of the impact on the alcohol industry? Would it really be a mere 1.8% reduction in alcohol consumption? Or could it be more? Much more?

Walmart, which often provides pharmacy services in its stores, is already comparing the shopping habits of those who buy these weight loss drugs and those who don’t. Early findings show those buying the drugs are also indeed buying fewer food units and fewer calories in their stores. And recall, despite the increase in the use of these drugs, they are still too expensive for common use.

While on the one hand, it’s a bit surprising that pharmaceutical companies appear to have developed the “Weight Loss Pill” before developing the “Hair Regrowth Pill”, it is not surprising that they developed it after first creating the Erection Pill.

Based on what we know of these weight loss pills now, it’s not crazy to predict that fifteen or twenty years from now the role of cheap and accessible weight loss drugs will take as much of the blame for a severe decrease in per capita wine consumption as does Gen Z with their promiscuous approach to alcohol consumption that doesn’t just focus on wine, beer and spirits.

On the other hand, maybe Morgan Stanley will be wrong.

Let’s imagine a world in which obesity, particularly severe obesity, becomes a choice. In this slimmer world, body image anxiety takes on a much-reduced role, leading to people being far more willing to participate in social gatherings rather than sequester themselves at home for fear of embarrassment or judgment. Furthermore, let’s imagine a world in which a pill conditions us to consume everything more moderately rather than in large heaps or not at all. Might these conditions lead to an overall increase in wine consumption?

All of this is to say that while a potent weight loss pill may not change everything the way we can nearly say of the Birth Control Pill, it may in fact not have the impact that the current out-of-the-gate predictions are telling us it may have.

We are complex creatures, we human beings. While our actions can often be traced to simple, discreet causes, they are also the result of a complex interplay of social, emotional, biological, and physical causes. Who knew that simply placing a cute animal on a wine label would lead millions of people to reach for a slew of wines dressed in animal labels? Who knew that all it would take to tank the sales of a popular varietal wine like Merlot and uplift another like Pinot Noir would be a mediocre film about a wine drinker having a midlife crisis?

I’m predicting that inexpensive and easily accessible weight-loss pills will have a significant impact on wine sales. I just have no idea what kind of impact that will have.