The 8 Changes Coming to Wine in the U.S

Changes in wine drinking patterns is going to have reprocussions

Esther Mobley of the San Francisco Chronicle recently saw a story published that has people talking. It’s all about the hard times California wineries are facing as a result of many factors, not the least of which is that it appears folks are simply drinking less.

But what went unnoticed is that this article on California Wine Armaggedon came on the heels of another article by Mobley that concluded with this nugget:

“Trust me, the American masses will only abstain from drinking for so long.”

I don’t know if she is right. But I do know a few of the things that are coming down the pike for the American wine drinker and the American wine industry that are related to shifts in drinking patterns. Here’s what we have to look forward to:

1. DISAPPEARING WINERIES AND MORE WINERY SALES.
Yes, some California wineries will either be shuttering their doors or selling at a discount to larger conglomerates. The closing of cellar doors and sales will begin to pick up beginning at the end of this year. However, when the inevitable talk of “consolidation'“ and its sorry implications begins, don’t buy into it. There are so many wineries in California that if 20% closed overnight, you’d still have more than you could ever visit or taste from in a lifetime.

2. DISCOUNTS
It is a function of a down market that consumers benefit. We are about to see a lot more formerly $50 wines discounted by 50%. Moreover, many of those small-production, highly allocated wines that often show up in the auction and secondary market are going to be sold at a discount.

3. PUSH BACK AGAINST NON-ALCOHOLIC ALTERNATIVES.
I’ve always said it: non-alcoholic wine is not wine because it’s only wine if it has alcohol. Now others are saying it. And we are going to hear it more and more. The big talk these days is non-alcoholic alternatives, “Mocktails”, etc. As Ms. Mobley noted in other words, a 10,000-year love affair with alcohol isn’t going to be set aside. Moreover, there are more than enough of us who have tasted these non-alcohol substitutes for wine who are willing to say out loud: Ewwwwww.

4. A LEGAL REFORM MOVEMENT
There is a long and glorious history of hard times generating calls for reforms that will help those going through those times. Expect the same in the alcohol biz. In the coming two or three years we are going to see numerous bills introduced into state legislatures that call for easier DTC shipping regulations for wine, new laws allowing DTC shipping of spirits and beer, and enhanced self-distribution privileges for producers.

5. AN EVOLUTION IN WINE MEDIA
Wine & Spirits Magazine won’t be the last established wine media company to close or minimize its footprint. The recent announcement by publisher Josh Greene that Wine & Spirits Magazine would no longer go to print and most likely won’t be adding much in the way of new content caused understandable handringing in wine circles. Fewer drinkers and diminishing interest in wine are bad news for wine-related media that rely on ads and subscriptions and events. However, you can expect this to lead to the launch of many more projects like the one you are reading in which individual writers strike out on their own with their own subscription-based wine vehicle. In fact, don’t be surprised when you see some VERY established writers do exactly this.

6. INCREASING CALLS OF “BULLSHIT” OVER NEGATIVE HEALTH CLAIMS
You can only get punched in the nose by bullshit artists so often before you decide to punch back and this is exactly what is going to happen in response to irresponsible claims such as “there is no safe level of alcohol consumption”. These claims are akin to “there is no safe amount of auto travel”. The anti-alcohol brigade is beginning to lean out over their skies and folks like me and many, many others will be calling them out in very direct and ferocious ways. When it comes, enjoy it.

7. WHOLESALER CONSOLIDATION
This will be bad for everyone except a few large distributors and huge wine conglomerates. But when the pie starts to shrink, expect wholesalers to address the downturn by trying to accumulate a larger piece of the remaining pie.In fact, I will not be surprised if members of the top five wholesalers eat one another until the five become three. And don’t expect serious anti-trust concerns to stop the consolidation.

8. WINE WILL BECOME “COOL AGAIN”
Like clockwork, a sustained downturn in any industry, particularly an industry associated with non-essential goods and “sin”, will eventually find itself “cool” again according to the media. It always happens. Give us three years of reduced consumption, consolidation, and focus on “alternatives” to wine and we will start to see stories about how “wine is cool again” because this or that celebrity or niche group “discovered” the drink’s “amazing history” and its ability to “enhance food”. For any of us in the industry, this will be tedious and cause eye-rolling. But let it play out without complaint. People need to be allowed to believe they have “discovered” something.